Continent-Wide Tree Species Distribution Models May Mislead Regional Management Decisions: A Case Study in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve Mura-Drava-Danube

The understanding of spatial distribution patterns native riparian tree species in Europe lacks accurate models (SDMs), since forest habitats have a limited extent and are strongly related to the associated watercourses, which needs be represented environmental predictors. However, SDMs urgently needed for adapting management climate change, as well conservation restoration ecosystems. For such an operative use, standard large-scale bioclimatic alone too coarse frequently exclude relevant In this study, we compare continent-wide model regional based on climate, soil, river data central south-eastern Europe, targeting seven foundation species—Alnus glutinosa, Fraxinus angustifolia, F. excelsior, Populus nigra, Quercus robur, Ulmus laevis, U. minor. results emphasize high importance precise occurrence Soil predictors were more important than variables, variables partly same importance. both models, five found decrease terms future probability within study area, whereas two ambiguous. Nevertheless, predicted dangerous loss economically ecologically species, likely leading significant effects composition structure, provided ecosystem services.